By United Nations
This booklet evaluates the institutional checklist on clash prevention, identifies present developments in clash prevention perform, and makes tips about enhancing organizational capability. the 1st a part of the booklet addresses the query: what's winning clash prevention? the second one half displays on how current mechanisms and tools for clash prevention might be safely evaluated and stronger, targeting associations on the leading edge of clash prevention coverage akin to ecu, the OSCE and NATO. The individuals to this booklet are a various team of people concerned about clash prevention actions together with, students from constructed and constructing international locations, and practitioners with insights at the paintings of local companies and the United countries.
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Extra resources for Conflict Prevention: Path to Peace or Grand Illusion
24 Miklos advised against ‘ex cathedra denunciations’ or excessive support for critics of the Shah’s record. US ofﬁcials ought instead to work with the Iranian bureaucracy to identify areas of law or practice in which liberalisation would not undermine Iranian security. The best results would be achieved through frequent and high-level contact between the two governments, and adequate exposure of the Shah to the President. The Shah’s state visit to Washington in November 1977 would be the ﬁrst opportunity for Carter to personally press the Iranian leader on human rights.
The Shah was said to believe America’s ageing security commitment ‘no longer credible’, and had decided he faced little alternative other than to embark upon a large-scale and expensive military modernisation programme aimed at attaining military self-sufﬁciency. It was thus eroding American power that now brought him into conﬂict with Carter’s apparent desire to roll back on arms sales as a tool of foreign policy. Miklos’ view proceeded from an orthodox realist analysis. Iran’s military policies were measured against rising security threats, and its leaders would be unlikely to adjust their threat perceptions to ﬁt any normative or political agenda in Washington.
The ambitious strategic pivot advocated by the NSC would require a major bureaucratic battle and a huge relocation of ﬁnancial and logistic resources. In contrast, the US embassy in Tehran used the same analysis to argue against any major shift on Iran policy. The embassy’s ﬁrst major report on the state of the US–Iranian relations, delivered 2 months after Carter’s inauguration, was a classic example of such reporting. It offered policy suggestions based on the assessment that the Shah believed the America’s security guarantee was no longer commensurate to the rising Soviet threat.